Your parents might have told you not to discuss politics at family events. “It’s pointless and you’re not going to change anyone’s opinion.” Especially those of your MAGA uncle or socialist aunt.  

There’s a lot of truth to that wisdom when it comes to true believers. You know, the types who think Trump won the 2020 election despite losing every court case. Or extremists on the left who think Hamas was justified in killing innocent civilians at a music festival. 

You’re not going to change the opinions of any of those true believers no matter your rhetorical gifts. 

But I’m not interested in changing the opinions of true believers in 2024. It’s a waste of energy. While I hope that in time we can achieve the basics – the rule of law that equally applies to everyone, political parties that don’t consistently put party over country, etc. – it’s unrealistic to think we can realize these goals during this election cycle.

There is a group of voters, however, that can help get us there faster. This group can help us rebuild democracy in America and prevent anything like January 6th from happening again.

They are Republican voters who view Trump unfavorably. 

To win a fight against MAGA, the political battle must be fought from its normative edges in. Don’t even waste time on the true believers. Instead, target Republicans on the edges who are uncomfortable with Trump, and thrust his most vile rhetoric upon them. Force them to associate with it, to feel the connection, and to live with the increasing discomfort and unfavorability.     

Trump is unfavorable to ~20% of Republicans 

That may not sound like many, but take a look at these numbers. There are approximately 38.8 million Republicans in America. If you take 20% of that total, you get 7.76 million Republicans. 

President Joe Biden won the 2020 election against Trump by ~7 million votes. Before even counting independents, if Democrats can simply win over a critical mass of Republicans who view Trump unfavorably, they can significantly increase their odds of winning the 2024 election.

Many of the Republicans in this “unfavorable” category would not be caught dead at a Trump rally. Many of them do not want anyone to know they even voted for the guy. They stay quiet at work when anything remotely political gets discussed.

It’s at these normative edges where progress can be made. 

And it’s not like there’s a lack of political ammunition to remind these Republican swing voters of why Trump is so disfavorable and why they should vote for the Democrat alternative: 

• Trump was found liable this year for sexual assault and he’s on multiple flight logs for Jeffrey Epstein’s private plane.
• Forget about Trump’s macro criminal picture of 4 indictments and focus on specific allegations, particularly in the Georgia indictment. Harassing election poll workers, damning quotes about overturning the election – some of which were recorded (“I just want to find 11,780 votes”), and the Trump team’s coordinated campaign to use fake electors to overturn the election.
• Trump’s dreams of dictatorship are now readily apparent. He even said he wants to be dictator for a day, which if allowed that inch we know he’ll take a mile. 

The best strategy to flip Republican voters is to target those who already have unfavorable opinions of Trump with this type of direct messaging. Ads, social media influencers, and heavy canvassing in battleground districts. This group of Republicans must be made to feel so uncomfortable with the threats Trump poses to democracy that they cannot bear even the thought of casting their vote for him.

Targeting the MAGA battleground districts

The next key area to focus on is any Republican-held district that could be close in the general election. Forget about Republicans who are only threatened by primaries (basically, threatened by more extreme MAGA Republicans). They’re in the true believer category and not worth the time. 

My home state of New York is going through a major redistricting that could give Democrats a big advantage in flipping current Republican House seats. But redistricting aside, many of these incumbent Republicans were elected in the midterms on very thin margins. 

Mike Lawler, who represents largely suburban areas just north of New York City, is a perfect example. He’s planning to vote with the Republican House majority in opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden despite having zero direct evidence that Biden committed any high crime or misdemeanor. 

It’s this type of blind compliance to party orthodoxy from a Republican who barely won his district (~1 percentage point difference) that must be called for what it is: enabling democratic decay.

As mentioned in this article on attacking autocracy in 2024, politicians like Lawler at the more local levels of government are the first lines of defense against an autocratic takeover in America. If they’re simply going along with the party line – that is specifically designed to distract from Trump’s legal problems by unjustly attacking Biden – then they need to be called on it early and often. 

The more Republicans like Lawler in battleground districts are forced to answer the tough questions about the threats Trump poses to American democracy, the more difficult it will be for them to get reelected. And then Trump will lose his buffer and protection in the House, Senate, and at the state and local levels. Without this Republican MAGA buffer, autocracy has little chance of thriving and overtaking democracy in America.

But it starts with Republicans like Lawler. He’s not full-on MAGA, nor does he want to be. He’s not the type to run off to Mar-a-Lago regularly to kiss the faux king’s pinky ring. Democrats must play to these prejudices – the discomfort the Mike Lawlers have in propping up an aspiring autocrat looking to have supremacy over the U.S. Constitution. 

Fight MAGA from its normative edges in   

The Mike Lawlers of the Republican Party are the targets this election season. The suburban moms and dads who voted for Biden this past year, but watch too much Fox News or listen to one too many Ben Shapiro or All-In Podcast episodes are the targets too. 

They all must be made to feel so uncomfortable with the possibility of Trump that they don’t even want to consider him. 

Because to the ordinary American who generally agrees with the principles set forth under the U.S. Constitution, it’s all very uncomfortable. More so, it’s disturbing, frightening, and shocking to think what America could become if Trump has four more years in power.

The damage he would cause would be irreversible. 

Once these Republican voters who already view Trump unfavorably realize that it’s not in their party’s best interests to elect someone who genuinely views himself as immune to every check and balance, they will not only be deterred from voting for him. They will be repulsed by the thought. 

It’s all of our job to make that case. As clearly and concisely as possible. 

Democracy hangs in the balance.