The FBI’s recent raid at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and home (the “Trump Raid”) tells us many things, not only about the government’s case against the 45th president, but also about Trump supporters and loyalists. 

Conservative media was in chaos in the hours after Trump confirmed the raid.  Kevin McCarthy even tweeted at Attorney General Merrick Garland, instructing him to “preserve your documents and clear your calendar.”  Others tried to divert attention by mentioning Hillary Clinton and Hunter Biden.  The worst might have been a few people who suggested – with zero basis – that we shouldn’t be worried about the FBI’s search, but about the evidence they will plant at Mar-a-Lago.  Oh, and the FBI should be completely abolished per many of those same people. 

All of this chaos on the right was not rooted in anger against an illegal search and seizure.  Trump has every right to challenge it in court.  Other Republicans and Trump supporters could help – and even fund – that effort.

They were angry because they think Trump is above the law.  To them it’s inconceivable that any evidence of a crime could even potentially be present at Mar-a-Lago.  They in fact know there is a strong potential, otherwise they wouldn’t act so frantically. 

Assuming there is evidence, expect to hear the following from these Trump loyalists.  Who cares if he brought home heaps of classified documents after leaving the White House?  Who cares if he pressured state employees to ignore legitimate votes and turn electors in his favor?  Who cares if he obstructed an official proceeding on January 6th and potentially engaged in a seditious conspiracy?   

What most people miss here is the political catastrophe this would be for the Democrats if nothing comes from the Trump Raid.  Despite independent, non-partisan institutions making the decision to execute the raid (DOJ, FBI, and the federal judiciary), Trump supporters and conservatives generally will view this as yet another “unwarranted” partisan attack on Trump.  

So you can be pretty certain that these institutions had probable cause before going to such lengths. 

The Trump Raid required probable cause

Democrats cannot simply force the FBI to raid Mar-a-Lago.  The Biden administration did not and would not have known anything about the raid in advance.  Although Republicans want you to believe it was a Democrat-led operation.  Trump even said as much in his statement. 

In order to conduct a search and seizure of private property – former president or not – the FBI needs a warrant signed by a federal judge.  In order to get that warrant, they would have needed to demonstrate probable cause.  Otherwise, Trump’s team could easily challenge it and not only throw it out of court, but potentially file misconduct claims against everyone involved.

Before they even presented this warrant to a federal judge, they would have needed approval from the highest levels of the FBI and DOJ.  By the way, Trump appointed the current FBI head, Christopher Wray. 

The odds of this being a political hatchet job are therefore slim to none.

As of this writing, we have not seen a copy of the warrant or the application for it.  What we know is primarily from Trump himself (who has yet to release the warrant either, despite nobody holding him back but himself). 

From a legal perspective, the fact agents broke into Trump’s personal safe tells me they are looking for documents specific to Trump.  They are probably not looking for classified documents related to the Trump administration as a whole.  But instead evidence of a crime specific to the man himself.  

This means the search and seizure is likely about more than the classified documents themselves.  In isolation, mishandling classified documents is a serious but relatively minor charge that carries a maximum five year prison sentence.  

The FBI is unlikely to have conducted the Trump Raid based on that potential charge alone.  Especially when considering the potential political fallout unless they were bringing bigger charges.  Therefore, this is likely more about what is inside the classified documents as it relates to Trump, and/or about information that might lead to charges related to January 6th.

Which means the Trump Raid is likely headed to a grand jury with potentially an indictment against Trump to follow.

Republicans scream foul and will do anything to cling to power 

Despite a lack of evidence that this was an unreasonable search and seizure, Republicans have screamed foul about the Trump Raid.  It’s good politics for them.  They know it will energize the base, allowing them to cling to power, and maybe even help them regain a House majority this November.

If a civil war breaks out as a result, so be it.  In fact, the Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate has basically threatened to secede should she win.  All because of the Trump Raid.

But while many of the newer extremist Republicans have called foul and threatened civil war, the most interesting reaction is from the old guard.  Senators like Mitch McConnell.  As of this writing, most of them have remained silent when they could have easily denounced the search and seizure if they viewed it as politically motivated.

Republicans in the middle – guys like Kevin McCarthy and Ron DeSantis – want to stoke the flames of Trumpism to garner support, while also keeping more moderate Republicans happy by not calling for civil war, demolishing the FBI, and impeaching Merrick Garland, the Attorney General.

They expect teflon Donald Trump to escape unscathed once again.  As he has from the Mueller investigation, two impeachments, and all of the scrutiny post-January 6th (so far).  That track record together with Trump’s current popularity suggests they are wise to remain loyal if their motives are still power and party over country.  

Trump’s reaction reveals how he viewed the office and what he will do next

I get why the vast majority of Republican politicians remain loyal out of self-preservation, but Trump has shown time and again that everything is about Trump.  He cares about nobody and nothing else.  Not even America.

He made this clear in his message announcing the Trump Raid.  The message was all about him.  How he’s been persecuted for years.

“I stood up to America’s bureaucratic corruption, I restored power to the people, and truly delivered for our Country, like we have never seen before.”

– Donald Trump

He truly viewed the Executive Office of the President as his own.  When in reality, it is bigger than any one man or woman.  It is supposed to be in service to “we the people.”

Instead, Trump used it as his own personal piggy bank, which came with DOJ attorneys who he tried to use for personal matters (like impeachments) and generals who expected to act like those who worked for Hitler.  I wish I was making that last one up, but he actually said it, revealing his historical ignorance to the fact Hitler’s generals attempted to assassinate him at least three times.

In the end, mob boss Donald Trump will try to make this seem like a broader conspiracy.  The Democrats and deep state are coming for you and your family.  He may even use it as an opportunity to announce his 2024 candidacy for president. 

When in reality it’s all a ruse; a smokeshow designed to regain power not to make America great again, but to make Donald Trump president again for one purpose: to shield himself from criminal liability.

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