I previously said Vladimir Putin would be foolish to use a tactical nuclear weapon for a number of reasons.  But as I also said, a desperate political leader is prone to reckless actions.

Media reports have recently focused on Putin’s baseless allegations that Ukraine plans to use a dirty bomb (i.e., a conventional weapon with radioactive properties).  But we shouldn’t be concerned about the dirty bomb itself.  What we should fear is what Putin would do next.  

Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.  I’m not the only one with this prediction. 

The certainty of this statement is based on a number of key indicators.  

• Putin and Russia’s history of using false flag operations or pretexts to justify physical force;  
• Putin’s overt attempts to formalize the Ukraine dirty bomb false flag;  
• The unsubstantiated nature of the dirty bomb false flag claims, which reveal Putin’s desperation and recklessness; 
• Tactical nuclear weapons serving as a fundamental part of Putin’s war plan; and   
• Putin’s strong belief in the power of psychological warfare and the equally strong belief in a weak Western world order, which he’s determined to upend if not destroy. 

Putin knows the West does not want World War III. Which is why it makes the threat of him using tactical nuclear weapons all the more likely.  It’s unlikely to elicit a strategic nuclear response from the West. 

Let’s address each of the factors listed above in tandem and assess why they indicate he will ultimately decide to use tactical nuclear weapons. 

Putin and Russia’s history of false flag operations

Vladimir Putin rose to power and cemented it following a series of suspicious apartment bombings. This led to his war with Chechnya. 

False flags operations have a long history in Russia even prior to Putin.  For example, in the 1960s, the KGB used false flag operations to justify an invasion of Czechoslovakia, which was undergoing democratic reforms (thereby threatening Communism). 

Guess who cut his teeth as a member of the KGB?  Vladimir Putin.  He’s undoubtedly well-versed in Soviet-style false flag operations based on his experience.

A dirty bomb blamed on Ukraine fits the standard Russian playbook and narrative to justify an escalation in force.

Putin has tried to formalize the dirty bomb false flag

At the United Nations, Russia recently raised its baseless accusations that Ukraine was planning a dirty bomb attack.  On its own territory.  Because that makes all the sense in the world.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, said that the West was foolish to dismiss Russia’s allegations.  Yet neither he nor anyone else at the Kremlin offered any evidence.

By formalizing its allegations before the United Nations Security Council, Russia is attempting to do something that has always been important to Putin – operate as a member of the international community.  For someone who criticizes the West as much as Putin does, he’s always an active participant in international bodies like the UN, G20, etc. 

Putin wants credibility and recognition.  He wants to be feared.  He wants Russia to be taken seriously on the international stage.  Which is why he has made these baseless dirty bomb accusations against Ukraine on the most formal of international stages at the United Nations Security Council.

It shows how serious he is about planting a pretext.

The dirty bomb allegations against Ukraine are completely unsubstantiated and reveal Putin’s desperation and recklessness

Russia has alleged that Ukraine has ordered dirty bomb materials from two separate organizations.  The specificity in its allegations end there.  It’s unclear who these organizations are, where and how this bomb is being assembled, and the fact that Ukraine’s government has made efforts to assemble it.  And again, why would they detonate it on their own soil?

Is it a coincidence that this is happening at the same time as Russian forces are being beaten back in Russian-occupied Kherson?  Is it a coincidence that these baseless allegations arrive as Russia suffers serious setbacks in its conventional war against a much smaller force?

These are the types of baseless threats that desperate and reckless political leaders make.

The current situation makes Russia and Putin in particular extremely dangerous.  Because he must save face at home to hold onto power, Putin essentially has no choice but to up the ante and escalate. 

Tactical nuclear weapons are a fundamental part of Putin’s war plan

Putin has an estimated 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in his arsenal.  By contrast, the United States eliminated almost its entire stockpile of these weapons.  That decision looks very unwise now from a deterrence perspective.  

The United States and NATO would only be able to respond to a tactical nuclear attack by Russia with conventional weapons and additional sanctions.  It’s unlikely that anyone would want to escalate further by using strategic nuclear weapons, as that could bring something even worse than World War III.

Given that Russia maintained their tactical nuclear weapon arsenal, it’s clear that these weapons are a fundamental part of Putin’s war plan.  They would allow Putin to strike a specific target in a tactical way.  While the physical effect of these weapons on the battlefield may be relatively limited (even if the radiation wouldn’t be), the psychological effects on Ukraine and the West cannot be understated. 

It would instill fear in many around the world.  Nobody sane wants a nuclear confrontation with Russia.  That’s exactly the psychological effect that Putin is seeking. 

Putin values psychological warfare oftentimes more than physical

As a former KGB agent, Putin knows the value of instilling fear and other negative emotions in people.  Instead of directly attacking his adversaries who may have more dominant militaries, he attacks the hearts and minds of their people. 

He has displayed this approach in elections, particularly the U.S. presidential election in 2016.  He has shown this in Ukraine by attacking Kyiv directly at the start of the war.  He has targeted population centers with reckless abandon.

All of these tactics are efforts to win the psychological war.  The idea being it will make the physical battles easier.  The psychological tactics are designed to crush the will of his adversary’s people.  

Putin also does this in more physical ways.  Turning off the natural gas taps to Europe is the paramount example.  Putin hits people where it hurts the most.  In their wallets and minds.  

It’s clear he thinks this strategy will weaken an already weak Western world.  Putin is betting they will lose the will to support Ukraine indefinitely. 

Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon, but it will be a foolish miscalculation

At this point, I’m skeptical that any amount of warning or deterrence by America or anyone else will keep Putin from using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.  Just as he made it clear he would invade Ukraine (even when many experts thought otherwise), he will escalate the war in Ukraine if he needs to.  A desperate man is a reckless man.

I still contend this would be extremely foolish of Putin.  Russia would likely be expelled from the international community, become the target of more conventional military attacks by the West and Ukraine, and likely face even greater sanctions, including potentially a full embargo.  These measures would completely cripple Russia.

They could also lead to World War III.  

But we cannot let Putin play nuclear chicken with Ukraine and the world.  It must be clear that there are consequences for nuclear escalation.  

Even if Putin clearly fails to see those consequences now.