Russia and China have established a new economic and security network aimed at destroying the Western world order.  They each have their own motivations for doing so, but with a common adversary in “the West”, their partnership is mutually beneficial.  It’s obviously a problem for western countries, including the United States, its European allies, and Asian countries like Japan and South Korea. 

A North-South world order dominated by Russia and China would bring more autocracy, with less civil liberties and freedom of expression.  It is a direct counter to the Western democratic world order that has been in place since the end of World War II.  And it is the strongest counter since the Soviet Union.

The shocking part of it all is that many in the West do not view it as a significant threat.  Yes, an economic and security network led by Russia and China has united many Republicans and Democrats in the United States, but it has also inspired others to denounce America.  

On Medium alone, numerous articles have appeared on the moral equivalency between the U.S. and Russia and China.  How the U.S. system should be destroyed (even though America is doing fine).  How the western world order should be blown up (figuratively, I think) and put back together (or not, according to some).

While I can understand the outrage, this equivalency is false.  Democracy is the best system of government humans have invented to date.  And the standard of living for the average person has never been higher.  

What, if any, alternative would you prefer?

Democracy is not perfect, nor is America always exceptional.  Both require work and constant enhancement in order to survive and thrive.  It’s a total cop out, however, to advocate blowing it up or burning it down when the weight of systemic injustice appears too great.

Democracy is messy.  It requires tough conversations and difficult actions, sometimes against the self-interest of those taking them.  And sometimes unduly influenced by bots and algorithms looking to exploit freedom of speech for their own nefarious objectives.

Many dissidents though do not even have freedom of speech in Russia and China.  Those that try risk disappearing.  Forever. 

Is that the type of world order we want?  Where freedom of speech on social media, platforms like Medium, or in any other public square or private setting is under constant surveillance and threat?      

It is more important than ever that the West unifies in its efforts to bolster democracy and uphold the rule of law.  Otherwise, fissures will expand and Russia and China will fill the gaps, destroying the Western world order as we know it.

Western world order that promotes democracy and the rule of law

For almost a decade the world has trended towards authoritarianism.  When people feel aggrieved, it is easier for strongmen to gain power by pointing the blame at something or someone else.  Around most of the world, that blame rests on the United States’ shoulders.  In the United States, that blame rests on the shoulders of many immigrants, the “deep state”, and “liberal elites.” 

Many of the same people who decry European colonialism and American exceptionalism excuse or ignore the dangers of autocracy, Russian adventurism in places like Ukraine, and Chinese financial enslavement.  

The only way for the West to counter these threats is by promoting democracy and the rule of law.  That means not simply pointing to idealistic words on a page, but practicing what they actually say. 

Which is why America cannot permit the will of a vocal minority to execute theocratic takeovers and restrict civil liberties.  It’s hypocritical and undermines the credibility of democracy on the world stage, especially when a majority of Americans disagree with those positions (including the attempted January 6th coup).

In addition to getting America’s house in order – which, admittedly, is a tall task at this point – promoting democracy also means creating incentives for developing countries to do business with the West.  For too long China has been left unchallenged as they’ve waded through the world’s diplomatic backwaters with initiatives like One Belt One Road.  China was willing to go where many western countries weren’t.  As a result, over the past decade China has built relationships with natural resource rich countries in the developing world, giving Chinese companies ready access to crucial 21st century minerals like lithium and cobalt.

Russia has done the same.  Since his invasion of Ukraine, Putin has courted not only China, but other historically sanctioned countries like Iran.  In fact, Putin recently visited Tehran to discuss energy and trade deals.  Even prior to the invasion of Ukraine – or should I say, in anticipation of it – Russia has partnered with numerous developing nations. 

The dependence of the developing world on Russia was made vividly clear when the UN General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council.  Vietnam voted against it (in addition to sanctioned countries like North Korea, Iran, and Cuba) and many others abstained including, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia.

Many of those countries rely on Russia for trade and/or they are in China’s backyard.  The abstaining votes were one of the first signs of the emerging North-South world order.  There was an even longer list of abstentions when asked simply to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Most of the African countries abstained.    

The West must revisit relationships with these abstention countries or forge new ones.  That does not mean imposing democracy on them, but instead developing or enhancing trade or security deals.  They need to be incentivized to partner with the West, not Russia and China.  Otherwise, autocracy and corruption will win the day. 

Promoting democracy requires stability in the West

There is a new President in the United States every 4 or 8 years.  The same term limits are true for most western countries.  Maybe it is time to change that.  

How can we expect someone to master the hardest jobs in the world within such a short timeframe?  Especially when the competition in Russia and China have been in power for decades.  

Putin has been in power since 2000 (aside from a brief stint as Prime Minister).  Xi Jinping has been in power since 2013.  Both have had significant experience on the world stage that’s unmatched by the West.  

If term limits don’t change – because democracies are not ruled by kings, after all – then foreign policy must have some stability and consistency.  NATO must focus not only Russia, but China too.  Taiwan is their version of Ukraine.  If the deterrence factors are not clear beforehand, China may reach the same calculations Russia did in Ukraine.     

Other international governing bodies from the UN to the IMF and World Bank must also refocus efforts on promoting democracy.  Again, that does not mean stuffing it down the throats of countries who do not want it, but incentivizing them to partner with the West as opposed to Russia and China.  

The United States unfortunately cannot be counted on to take the lead because it’s one Trumpian candidate away from an isolationist foreign policy.  It will take some serious Republican soul-searching to change that.  At least combating a rising China and Russian aggression is one of the rare areas where Republicans and Democrats can find common ground.  The next question is whether they can develop a stable, consistent foreign policy to counteract a China-Russia partnership.

Exploit Russia and China’s Differences  

Although China and Russia may be increasingly aligned against the West, their interests are not the same.  First, there is a long history of mistrust between the two countries.  Most importantly, the West views Putin as a pariah, but necessary trading partner (for now).  Xi Jinping does not want China ostracized from the international, U.S. dollar-denominated community.  He does not want for China what Russia is currently enduring with sanctions.  

The West must exploit these crucial differences.  They must apply more pressure on China, not only with regards to assisting Russia militarily, but also in any attempts to help Russia evade sanctions.  

If there is a scintilla of evidence that China has violated either of these areas, the West must bring the full force of the international banking system down on China’s head.  This could significantly complicate everything, from how the West manufactures its goods to what products you can purchase on Amazon.  

But we have to ask ourselves – do we want a world based on democratic principles or one ruled by autocratic strongmen?  

Yes, democracy needs improvement.  Economic inequality is a huge issue, and many feel rightfully cheated by the system and their governments.  We can overcome those challenges though.  In the past century we have overcome much more.  We need to keep fighting for civil liberties, the rule of law, and justice for all.

Because right now, Russia and China are winning.