It’s challenging to keep track of every case against Donald Trump. More are coming too. As I write this, Fani Willis in Georgia is loading her own grand jury-powered indictment cannon aimed at the 45th President.

None of these cases look good for the Teflon Don. If I were Trump’s lawyer – and thank God I am not – I would strongly advise him to make a deal. He’s supposed to be good at that, right?

Even the weakest and least severe case against him – the alleged political hush money payments to Stormy Daniels in New York – is pretty ironclad. Michael Cohen may not be the most credible government witness in the world, but he was Trump’s loyal fixer for years. Few could directly incriminate him better than Cohen.

Back at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump apparently played musical bathrooms with classified documents, they forgot the number one rule of criminality: it’s not the crime that ruins you, it’s the cover-up. 

Did nobody learn anything from Watergate?

Wouldn’t it be something if all of Trump’s accusations against Hillary and her emails actually boomerang back at Trump? 

At a minimum, his accusations from 2016 establish he had knowledge that possessing and retaining classified docs was wrong. Yet when asked to return them, not only did he fail to comply, there’s new evidence he actively evaded government requests for the documents by moving them (all caught on his own video tapes) and attempting to delete the security footage. 

We haven’t even gotten to the latest indictment. This one is related to January 6th and the 2020 election aftermath, and it appears to be the strongest yet. 

There are four counts, with detailed evidence to substantiate each one: (i) a conspiracy to defraud the United States of lawful election results (e.g., installing fake electors); (ii) a conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding (i.e., the certification of the electoral vote); (iii) actual obstruction of an official proceeding; and (iv) conspiracy against rights (i.e., all Americans’ right to vote). 

Despite these cases, I’m confident that Trump won’t do a second of jail time. Let’s go through the three reasons why. 

It would start a civil war

There are multiple parts of the latest indictment against Trump where his team warns of riots should Trump cling to power. The same will happen if Trump is imprisoned for any of these crimes. 

Trump will welcome the violence too. He has already alluded to it in many of his Truth Social posts, whining that “Biden’s DOJ” is doing this to “YOU”, his loyal supporter. That YOU should be angry. 

Trump is amping up the emotional tone of his army.  Just as he did before January 6th: “Be there, be wild!”   

Remember, over 70 million Americans voted for this guy. At least one-third of the country is still pro-Trump. 

And have you seen Trump’s 2024 Republican primary numbers? He’s destroying the GOP field. It’s not even close, including for Ron DeSanctimonious. There’s no hope in saving the GOP.  

With that level of support – the type that remains unwavering even if Trump shot someone on 5th Avenue – his army is standing back (for now), but standing by. 

Why do I say “army”? Here’s an example: the attempted kidnapping of the Democratic Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer. The co-leader of that kidnapping attempt was recently sentenced to 16 years in prison, but not before conspiring to abduct a sitting governor and killing anyone who got in his way.  

Violence is not uncommon on the far right. The following Congressional testimony from Brookings captures it well: 

“[I]n recent years violence linked to white supremacist, anti-government, and other causes lumped under the label “right-wing” have proven far more lethal and more politically consequential.”

When all else fails, you can be sure that violence is what Trump will turn to as a last resort. Not to save his movement, but to save himself. And if he doesn’t overtly incite it, he will at a minimum not actively work to stop it, just as he failed to do on January 6th.

Any senior government official – whether politician or judge – must recognize this morbid reality. They will need to weigh the pros and cons of enforcing the rule of law or reaching some deal that perhaps involves Trump bowing out of political life forever in exchange for no jail time. 

Trump is too politically insulated 

The reason a deal of that nature may need to be struck is that Trump is too politically insulated. Not only with his base but with his peers. 

Almost all Republican Presidential candidates have agreed to pardon Trump should they become President. 

Although it’s important to note they wouldn’t be able to pardon Trump’s state-level offenses. They would need help from the relevant state governors to accomplish that feat. 

The 2024 election may arrive before Trump has been sentenced for any of these crimes (assuming he’s found guilty). If Trump wins, he could potentially pardon himself. If one of these other Republicans miraculously wins, they will likely pardon him “for the good of the country.” As Gerald Ford did for Richard Nixon and America.

Regardless, with support from the Republican Party in addition to his political base, Trump is very politically insulated. He basically needs to be a Presidential candidate or the President for the rest of his life to avoid liability and prison. Or at least have a friend in the White House. 

As it looks now, few Republicans are changing their tune, even after Jack Smith’s masterclass of legal brief writing was broadcasted for the world to see. This level of political support – even in the face of seemingly obvious crimes against American democracy – will make any judge think twice before giving sentencing instructions. 

The rule of law is not equally applied when someone like Trump wears an invincible shield of political power. 

History is not in favor of punishing a popular political opponent

Trump may not have the majority of Americans’ support, but he has enough. He has enough support to be dangerous. For his supporters are ride-or-die Trumpists.

Regardless of the circumstances, history does not favor punishing a political opponent with this level of popular support. It’s the sort of thing that gets the punisher labeled as a dictator, autocrat, or authoritarian, even if their administration is simply trying to enforce the rule of law. 

If Trump is imprisoned for charges brought by “Biden’s DOJ”, his supporters and fellow Republicans will scream bloody murder. They will ignore the fact that it wasn’t technically “Biden’s DOJ” that brought the charges, but a grand jury of average Americans. They will ignore the underlying crimes, the evidence, and the trial jury’s verdict. 

In their minds, all they will see is the Nazis locking up their political opponents. The Soviet Union placing theirs in forced labor camps. The Ayatollah detaining political opposition leaders. 

Republicans will want revenge. Trump supporters will want possibly even more, as they did on January 6th. 

As this kettle starts to boil, the powers that be will likely realize the dangers of this situation and try to make a deal.

America will never be the same if Trump goes to prison  

America still isn’t the same since the first shots were fired on Fort Sumter, triggering the Civil War. Alabama is still trying to disenfranchise black voters. 

I hate to admit that I don’t think America will be the same if Trump goes to prison for any of these crimes. His supporters will perceive it as their own personal imprisonment. 

For Trump, the master marketer and showman, has convinced all of his supporters that whatever happens to him happens to them as well. If he’s cheated, they’re cheated. If he’s lost, they’ve lost. If he’s imprisoned, then they are too. 

I hate to admit that I think for the good of America, we need to make a deal with Trump. 

Disappear.

Forever. 

And in exchange, he has to stay in Mar-a-Lago for the rest of his days. 

Never to be seen outside of its crumbling gates again.