Donald Trump may end up as the Republican nominee for President in 2024, but he is also mired in more criminal and civil litigation than practically any person in America. I’m here to help you make sense of it all. Below I assess arguments from all perspectives while considering broader implications to the U.S. Constitution and American democracy overall. 

Here, we’ll discuss everything from Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to why the Georgia indictment will be the one to finish Trump (if it gets to the finish line). Let’s start with Trump’s biggest criminal cases, move to his civil liability, and finish with the big constitutional issues (i.e., the 14th Amendment) that may block a future Trump presidency.  

Bookmark this page so you can return for future updates (there will be many!).

Federal January 6th case – presidential immunity defense

This case has received the most press recently because Trump attended an appeal before a three-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit (one level below the U.S. Supreme Court). It did not go well for the former President whose lawyers tried arguing that presidents have full immunity while in office (absent impeachment).

Judge Florence Pan asked Trump’s lawyer, D. John Sauer, the following question: 

“Could a president who ordered SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival, who was not impeached, would he be subject to criminal prosecution?”

His answer? A “qualified yes.” Sauer argued that the prosecution would only be permitted if the House impeached and the Senate convicted. This means his direct answer to Judge Pan’s question was a resounding: “No.”

Seriously consider the implications of this interpretation. Full presidential immunity would transform presidents into unchecked and potentially violent kings, with the ability to act with impunity against rivals, critics, dissidents, and any political opponent. 

It’s absurd.

And that was not even the most interesting question from the hearing, which was far more procedural. Most precedent indicates that a criminal case cannot be appealed to a higher court before a verdict (whether guilty or not). Trump has not even sat for trial yet in this case. So there’s a good chance all higher courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, remand the case to the district court so the trial can proceed.   

Prediction: The scope of presidential immunity argued by Trump’s lawyers is unlikely to fly before the D.C. Circuit. And that’s not only because the three-judge panel is comprised of two Biden-appointed judges, but primarily because the argument is a gross misreading of the U.S. Constitution, presidential powers, and impeachment. There’s no indication the founders ever wanted to give presidents full immunity to the extent they could assassinate political rivals and worry about criminal prosecution only if they were impeached.

Therefore, this argument is likely a big loser as it’s inconsistent with presidential powers, checks and balances, and the impeachment clauses under the Constitution. 

As previously mentioned, however, I doubt the D.C. Circuit will address the substantive merits of presidential immunity at this stage. Their safest – and least political – route would be to send the case back to the district level and force Trump to sit for trial, leaving the presidential immunity issue for a later date if Trump is found guilty. 

Status: A trial date is set for March 4th where Trump faces four counts related to his attempts to overthrow the election on and around January 6th: (i) conspiracy to defraud the United States; (ii) conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding; (iii) obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding; and (iv) conspiracy against rights.   

Expect as many appeals and delays as possible from Trump’s legal team. They want to do all they can to push this trial date back as close to November as possible. This way Trump could potentially return to office, pardon himself, and then fire all the prosecutors (while likely facing a third impeachment for doing so). 

Fun! Stay tuned for analysis of the upcoming decision by the D.C. Circuit once it’s published.

Fulton County’s RICO case – the strongest Trump case 

This is the strongest case – in my opinion – against Trump. I detailed my reasons why here. The case is specific to Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in Georgia, and it includes 18 of his associates as co-defendants. Three have already pleaded guilty.

We are still waiting for a trial date in this case, but one defendant has already won a 3-month delay for his specific case. This defendant, Shawn Still, was able to successfully argue before the judge that his work as a state senator would be impeded if he wasn’t given an extension to at least the end of the Georgia legislative session (April 18th).

Still is accused of being one of the “fake electors” that Trump and his team tried to prop up to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. It’s insane that his motion was granted given that practically every other criminal defendant with a job is not afforded the same luxury.   

Prediction: Once this case goes to trial it will be very difficult for Trump to defend himself, especially with multiple defendants already turning against him. RICO cases are also very favorable for prosecutors as I described here. I predict a guilty verdict against Trump, but no jail time. 

Status: While an official trial date has not been set, the judge recently indicated that a February hearing may work as he wants to avoid “dragging it out.” This comes as Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, is being accused of having an inappropriate relationship with the special prosecutor participating in the prosecution. Although it’s unclear how much of this is true and how much it will affect the case, it’s certainly a distraction that won’t help.    

Documents, documents, documents

The Trump raid seems so long ago, and dare I say, so inconsequential now. Classified documents piled next to Mar-a-Lago toilets. Something President Biden himself is also guilty of – to a degree. However, instead of the toilet, he kept his classified documents next to cars in his home garage. 

There’s a big difference between what Biden and others have done with classified documents and what Trump is accused of here. They gave the documents back when asked. Trump refused. Not once. Multiple times. 

Trump faces 37 criminal counts in this case, including unauthorized retention of national security secrets and obstruction of efforts by the government to retrieve the files.

One of Trump’s aides and his property manager were also named as co-defendants in the indictment. 

Prediction: Few good arguments could shield Trump from criminal liability here. Much of it will turn on the scope of presidential immunity as discussed above in the federal January 6th case. But that doesn’t necessarily resolve the issue of Trump keeping the documents and refusing to return them when asked after he was no longer the president. Guilty on all counts, but this case will be a slap on the wrist compared to the others.

Status: Trial date set for May 20th in Florida district court.  

Stormy, stormy, stormy

This case wins the award for being the silliest and biggest waste of time. It overpoliticizes the prosecutorial assault on Trump by distracting from the big cases. Honestly, who cares if Trump paid off a porn star at this point? The damage he has done and promises to do to American democracy is far worse. We are losing focus here.

Trump was charged here by the Manhattan district attorney with 34 counts of falsifying business records related to payments made to Stormy Daniels. 

Prediction: Guilty as sin, but like I said, it’s a distraction. It feeds the narrative that everyone in the liberal world is just out to get Trump. There’s some truth to that because this case has sat on the back burner for years. I’m all for upholding the rule of law as equitably as possible, but when we have January 6th cases looming, there are bigger fish to fry.  

Status: Trial date set for March 25th in New York state court.   

At fault for fraud in New York

Let me repeat that again. Donald Trump has already been found at fault for fraud in New York. Closing arguments in the damages phase of the trial were heard on January 11th. 

New York Attorney General Letitia James is seeking $370 million in fines and to bar Donald Trump from the New York real estate industry. 

Prediction: Trump has already been found liable for fraud for consistently inflating his net worth to win better financing terms. Given how central this appears to have been to his business empire to dupe banks, it wouldn’t surprise me if the judge grants the state’s request for $370 million in damages. It also didn’t help that Trump tangled with the judge who will ultimately decide his fate here.  

Status: The judge is aiming for a penalty decision by January 31st.

At fault for sexual abuse of E. Jean Carroll

It’s cases like this one where I have to wonder — does Trump think any law applies to him? The writer, E. Jean Carroll, has already won a lawsuit against Trump where she was awarded $5 million after a jury found him at fault for sexually abusing and defaming her. 

Sexual abuse. You read that correctly. By the former president. Yet it has no bearing on his candidacy in 2024. Ask Bill Clinton how a sexual act impacted his presidency (and it didn’t even amount to sexual abuse — the main issue was he lied about it!).

You would think a fact pattern like this would lead Trump to move on. Never mention or answer questions about E. Jean Carroll again. But he can’t help himself! He still claims he doesn’t even know who she is, despite the evidence showing them interacting in pictures.

Trump has continued contesting Ms. Carroll’s version of the events and has even made comments about her appearance, implying she was too ugly for him to sexually abuse. 

So Ms. Carroll has sued Trump again for defamation. 

Prediction: Trump continues to defame Ms. Carroll, including contesting the events that a jury found did happen. He’s likely to be found liable once again, although it’s unclear whether damages will reach the $10 million Ms. Carroll is seeking.

Status: This trial was set to begin January 17th, but Trump has unsurprisingly asked for delays due to scheduling conflicts. He’s cited the death of Melania’s mother (his mother-in-law), but failed to mention multiple campaign events. Trump has asked to testify during this second round trial, which the judge granted, so they’re trying to accommodate him, but expect him to delay as much as possible. 

The 14th Amendment cases and specifically: Trump v. Anderson (Colorado ballot case)

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering former President Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot. I’ve already covered some of the potential arguments for and against in this article. 

One additional issue that was a deciding factor in state court was the question of whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment even applies to the President in the first place. A simple reading of the legislative history of that amendment should easily resolve that issue (answer: it applies). But with a court made up of three Trump appointees, anything could happen. 

Prediction: The conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court overturns the Colorado Supreme Court and orders that Trump must be found guilty of “insurrection” before Secretary of States can remove him from the ballot. I don’t think this is the right answer for a number of reasons – namely, Section 3 does not require criminal liability – but expect the current court to narrow the scope of this section for fears of anti-democratic consequences. 

Note: this will likely impact other efforts to remove Trump from ballots in more than a dozen other states, including Maine where he’s currently appealing the decision of the Secretary of State to remove him.

Status: Set for oral argument before the Supreme Court on February 8th.     

Other potential cases:

I am very interested in Michigan. A trove of recently released emails revealed that Trump’s campaign “directly orchestrated” the signatures of 16 Michigan Republicans on a false certificate declaring that Trump won the state’s election in 2020. 

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel has charged each of these 16 fake “electors” with various crimes including forgery. But why not charge Trump himself too? Trump’s campaign was directly involved in the scheme based on the emails. 

The investigation is ongoing. Just as it is in other states that Trump and his campaign tried to overturn in 2020.

So in 2024, amidst the electoral uncertainty, be certain of this – Trump will be running around from one state to the next to escape both criminal and civil liability. 

Winning the presidency in November is truly the only thing that can save him.