Blame it on American exceptionalism, but when I used to read about a lesser developed country’s contested election, I thought: “This could never happen in America.”  Then January 6th changed everything.  Now, whenever I read about a losing candidate alleging election interference with no evidence, I think: “Look at these Trumpian claims.”

That is exactly what I thought when reading about Raila Odinga’s rejection of William Ruto’s victory in Kenya’s recent presidential election.  The 77-year-old Odinga was running for president for the fifth time.  He has challenged the election results in each of the past two elections, including a successful challenge in 2017 (although he lost the rerun out of protest because he thought it was still rigged).  

Odinga will almost certainly try to challenge the 2022 results in a similar fashion.  Pressure may once again be put on Kenya’s Supreme Court to determine the “true” election results.  Much like it was in America back in 2000, and again through different (more coup-like) means on January 6, 2021.  

This is yet another example of democracy’s fragility.  Transitions of power are never guaranteed and must not be taken for granted.  Here’s what we should take away from Kenya’s Trumpian election.        

Democracies are most fragile during transitions of power

This past week in Kenya life ground to a halt, particularly in population centers like Nairobi.  From the day people voted to the day the results were finally announced, the streets were largely desolate, most people did not go into work, and children were kept home from school.  Police in riot gear patrolled city streets.  

Kenya waited with trepidation to hear the final election results.  Which is understandable given the political violence that has occurred in the past.  Following the contested 2007 elections, over 1,000 people were killed and some 600,000 were displaced.     

Thankfully, although the 2022 election has been contested by Odinga, political violence has been kept to a relative minimum.  Although a few election officials were attacked, and one was potentially kidnapped.  These events are obviously concerning, but it’s nothing like the widespread violence that has plagued Kenyan elections in the past.  

The fact is people feel comfortable lashing out violently when contested elections become normalized.  It is a glimpse of America’s potential future should the election denier wing of the Republican Party continue to gain traction.  Although with the right institutional safeguards, it doesn’t have to be that way.    

Independent election officials are more important than ever

Kenya does have an independent election commission that oversees presidential elections.  All of the power, however, sits with the chairperson of that commission.  That person declares the winner, regardless of whether there is a quorum on the commission. 

This has caused serious issues in the 2022 contest because four of the top seven election officials disassociated themselves with the results, calling them “opaque.”  Despite their protests, the chairperson, Wafula Chebukati, forged ahead with naming Ruto as the new president-elect.

There need to be more institutional checks to ensure election officials are reasonably independent.  Vesting absolute authority over the final election decision with one person risks undue influence, bribery, or corruption generally.  Spreading the authority across commission members checks behavior and forces officials to respect the protests of their peers.   

As we have witnessed in America, Trump and his cronies have targeted these very officials in key swing states.  They have made every effort to politicize the offices.  Despite no evidence of systemic voter fraud, Republicans in these states have made voting by certain demographics extremely challenging.

Without opining on whether Kenya’s election chairperson is justified here, the danger and risks of putting all of the election authority in the hands of one person should be clear.  As Republicans in America have increasingly illustrated, those individuals will be politically pressured.  

Transition officials must be independent too

A functioning democracy requires a smooth, peaceful transition of power.  As mentioned, the transition of power is the most fragile time for any democracy.  That is especially true when changing hands from one rival political party to another. 

America witnessed this after Trump lost the election in November 2020 and had to work with the Biden transition team leading up to inauguration day on January 20, 2021.  He stonewalled them.  He purposely kept Biden and his team in the dark, compromising national security and a smooth transfer of power.

The current transition committee in Kenya looks very similar.  President Kenyatta (who is leaving office) supported Odinga.  The key members of his transition committee all drummed up support and actively campaigned for Odinga over Ruto, the current winner.  Trusting that they can simply set aside their political differences and effectuate a smooth transition of power is likely wishful thinking.  Particularly as Odinga continues to challenge the election results.  

Similar to the necessary independence for election officials, transition officials must be reasonably independent too.  They should sit within a non-partisan government body like the Congressional Budget Office.  During transitions of power, their primary responsibility should be to make sure that the incoming teams are adequately briefed and integrated.  Democracies cannot rely on the outgoing administration to effectuate an adequate transition.  

Have you ever been trained by someone you’re replacing at work?  If that person was leaving on unfavorable terms, it’s unlikely they had any incentive to train you properly. 

Trumpian claims of election fraud without evidence were normalized by America

Contested elections in lesser developed countries are not uncommon.  It’s human nature for the powerful to want to retain power, or for the losers to want to take it by any means necessary.

What Trump’s actions on January 6, 2021 did for the world, however, was to normalize contested elections without evidence.  

No longer do political losers need to justify their claims to a contested election.  After all, the former President of the United States, the former leader of the so-called “free world”, did just that.

These “big lies” about election fraud are democracy’s kryptonite.  The more people believe them without any support or evidence, the weaker democracy becomes.  People must think more critically, even when the losing candidate is part of their political tribe.  

So much of democracy depends on the trust and confidence citizens have in institutions, norms, and laws.  Once that trust and confidence is broken, it can take down the entire system.  It also presents a breeding ground for strongmen who can take over to “fix the system” or “drain the swamp” because according to them, everything is corrupt.  

They never mention that they themselves fueled that corruption.  Or greatly exaggerated it to justify their authoritarian power. 

Hopefully Kenya’s recent elections result in a smooth and peaceful transition of power.  Hopefully the unsubstantiated claims of election fraud made by Odinga are short lived and without effect.  Given how January 6th unfolded though, there are no guarantees for Kenya’s Trumpian election.

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