Two Main Reasons For Putin’s Ukraine Aggression
Much has been made recently about the Russian troop build up on the Ukrainian border. Most media coverage, however, has not focused on the two main reasons for Putin’s Ukraine aggression. Why has he chosen now of all times to amass over 100,000 troops in a very visible manner, not only on Ukraine’s Russian border, but on the Belarusian border too?
Some have pointed to Putin’s faltering domestic poll numbers. Sure, no better way to distract the Russian populace from problems at home than by exerting geopolitical power. It’s a great way to avoid any scrutiny from his handling of the pandemic, despite the fact COVID-19 has rampaged Russia and continues unabated.
Others say he is testing the “West” and President Biden in particular. Western democracies have shown little appetite in recent years to engage in military skirmishes beyond their borders. So if Putin can effectively act with impunity, he will.
Oh, but economic sanctions you say? Russia is not threatened. Their economic ties with the richest state in the European Union – Germany – basically ensure that any economic consequences will sting, but not strangle their economy. The Russian people may be without iPhones for a while, but I’m sure China will be happy to fill the American void.
Putin is a shrewd calculator of risk and aggression. His chess moves against Ukraine have already factored in the possibility and likelihood of sanctions. And with this massive number of troops it is almost certain he will act in some way, whether it is annexing more land in eastern Ukraine or creating some pretext for a bigger invasion.
From Putin’s perspective, the time to act is now for two main reasons:
- America’s disastrous exit from Afghanistan; and
- Chancellor Angela Merkel’s exit from Germany
America’s Disastrous Exit From Afghanistan
President Biden’s administration did more than abandon Afghanistan. It showed America’s cards to the world, and Putin noticed. Putin saw American foreign policy in disarray. He witnessed the gross miscalculation of how long it would take for the Taliban to regain control of the country. He probably smiled as he watched many westerners run for the exits and their lives as any hope of democracy in Afghanistan died, just as some did from airplanes leaving Kabul.
The American public almost unanimously disagreed with the Biden administration’s handling of Afghanistan. There is little appetite in America for direct involvement in any additional conflicts beyond its borders. There are too many internal problems at home.
Putin is seizing on this American public sentiment in the wake of its disastrous exit from Afghanistan. With the horrible images fresh in American minds, he knows the American people will not want a repeat in Ukraine.
Putin also knows that Ukraine has likely questioned America’s commitment to its allies following its hasty Afghanistan exit. America’s sudden withdrawal left Afghanistan ripe for Taliban picking. That type of ally treatment is unlikely to comfort Ukraine.
Had America stayed in Afghanistan or done anything other than completely abandon the country, the world would not be witnessing the largest troop build up on another country’s border since World War II.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Exit From Germany
Germany is at a crossroads. New Chancellor Olaf Scholz is untested and does not want to upset it’s primary energy trading partner in Russia, especially in the middle of winter. How did this partnership come to be? Ask former President Donald Trump.
As America moved away from NATO under the Trump administration, Chancellor Merkel at the time knew that the European Union and Germany needed to prepare for a possible world without United States support in Europe. While the Nord Stream II was under development prior to the Trump administration taking office, Trump’s hands off approach to foreign policy in Europe (and elsewhere) expedited the project’s completion.
Now Germany and Russia are more interconnected economically than ever. And Germany does not have the LNG infrastructure needed to quickly receive natural gas imported by ship from countries like America. This leaves Scholz and Germany in a precarious economic spot should Russia shut off the natural gas taps, leaving many Germans without power and in the cold.
Merkel was a unique, strong, and bold leader. As someone who grew up in East Germany during the Cold War, she understood how to handle Putin better than almost anyone. With a new, unproven, and untested Chancellor, Putin sees an opportunity to divide Europe in any concerted effort to stop his aggression towards Ukraine.
Putin Will Move on Ukraine
He would not go to these current lengths just to have his tanks and troops turn around and go home with nothing. Putin dreams of a pre-1991 world order where the Soviet Union exerted strong influence globally. Ukraine has always been central to restoring Russia to its past glory, especially since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia wants to avoid at all costs any further courting of Ukraine by NATO.
Given these circumstances, the time is now for Putin. Thanks to the Biden Administration for its disastrous exit from Afghanistan. And thanks to Chancellor Angela Merkel leaving office in Germany. Foreign policy strength has never been weaker in the west in recent history.
And Putin thrives on identifying and exploiting weakness.
