The Frightening Possibility of a Marine Le Pen Victory In France
The upcoming French presidential elections are not simply for the future of France, but for all of Europe. On April 24th that fate could be sealed. Should Marine Le Pen defeat incumbent Emmanuel Macron, Europe could undergo its strongest shift to the political right in decades.
Instead of a Europe that promotes social democracy, a Le Pen victory would cement a new era of European nationalism, similar to what Viktor Orban has realized in Hungary. Macron had put France at the forefront and center of Europe, following Angela Merkel’s departure as Chancellor of Germany.
With Le Pen, France would retreat into itself. From economic protectionism to anti-immigrantion and opposition to many environmental measures, a Le Pen France would diametrically shift the worldview of the most visible European Union country today. And in turn, all of Europe would likely follow. It is not like Boris Johnson would be championing EU efforts in Macron’s absence. And Germany’s Olaf Scholz has proven himself incapable of acting outside of only Germany’s interests.
Almost two months into the war, Germany continues to buy Russian gas. Le Pen wants to do the same for France. She recently said in an interview that she was “perfectly in favor of all the other sanctions” except those on oil and gas from Russia. The one place Europe could actually cripple the Russian economy and its war machine is off limits for Le Pen because she does not “want French people to suffer the consequences of sanctions.”
More Ukrainian deaths though are not as much of a problem.
Past coziness with Putin
Le Pen’s statements against oil and gas sanctions are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Putin and Russia. Over the past years she has exhibited coziness with the Kremlin that even outmatched Donald Trump.
In 2017, she appeared to support Russia’s annexation of Crimea by calling for an end to international sanctions.
When Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, Le Pen’s political party received a loan from a Russian bank with alleged ties to the Kremlin.
Her current campaign literature even featured a picture of Le Pen shaking hands with Vladimir Putin (see the featured image for this article). The pamphlets were printed prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Le Pen’s campaign has since ordered them to be “binned.”
She even contends that when the Ukrainian war is over, Putin and Russia could again be an ally of France.
Although Macron’s efforts to thwart Putin’s aggressions have been largely unsuccessful, at least his rhetoric has supported the Ukrainian people while countering Russia. With Le Pen, the rhetoric, not to mention the actions, would drastically change. The rest of Europe would likely follow given their present economic ties to Russia.
“The policies I represent are the policies represented […] by Mr. Putin”
– Marine Le Pen, in a 2017 BBC interview
No more Frexit, but still anti-immigrant and anti-globalization
Marine Le Pen may no longer be pushing a Brexit-style exit from the EU for France (aka Frexit), but she still remains strongly anti-immigrant and anti-globalization.
She has proposed calling for a referendum on immigration. She would cut welfare for non-French citizens and expel any foreigners with no jobs. Meanwhile, she would increase the defense budget because why support immigrants when France can have a stronger military?
In an anti-globalization push, Le Pen would cherry pick the EU agreements of her liking, while reneging on others. Basically, that would mean walking back France commitments in areas like agriculture, migration, climate, and justice. This would send the EU as whole into chaos. If one of the primary member states reneges on their obligations, why should anyone else comply, especially in light of Britain’s recent exit from the EU?
Apart from Germany, the other remaining EU anchor states are Spain and Italy, both of which have long histories of fascism and nationalism. There are multiple far right parties in those countries waiting for their moment in the sun. A Le Pen victory would invite them out of the shadows.
Climate change would return to the shadows
Le Pen wants to scrap subsidies for wind and solar power, while Macron wants to invest further in both technologies. For Le Pen, wind turbines in particular are a blight on the French countryside. The technologies are too expensive and inefficient.
This is emblematic of her overall approach to climate change. Similar to the American conservative movement, she has argued against expensive and burdensome environmental policies, despite overwhelming evidence that humans have significantly contributed to climate change.
Similar to economic and foreign policy issues, Le Pen wants to take a nationalistic approach to the environment.
A Frightening Future In France and Europe
Should Le Pen take the helm in France on April 24th, the future of France and Europe will change forever. The EU may not survive. Nationalism will continue to spread, largely unabated, across the continent.
Worse, Putin will have allies where he previously had (mostly) adversaries. France is the last strong anchor state leading the charge against Russian aggression in Ukraine. For all of Macron’s domestic challenges, he has met the call of an EU leader, supporting Ukraine while attempting to negotiate with Putin, albeit unsuccessfully.
Le Pen has been closing in on Macron’s lead in recent polls. As her candidacy has become more of a possible reality, financial markets have been spooked. Le Pen’s political uncertainty and instability would inevitably lead to a broad market sell-off, with European financial markets likely crashing overnight. This is similar to what the U.K. experienced in the immediate aftermath of Brexit.
Apart from the financial impact and the domestic effects on France, everyone must consider broader moral implications. There should be no room in any social democracy for electing a Putin apologist. At worst, Putin is a war criminal, and at best, he is someone no country should ever deal with again. Don’t even try to blame NATO.
The future of Europe hangs in the balance this week. Let’s hope, for the sake of the world, that democracy wins the day.
