Liz Cheney has little to no chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.  She would not be able to win the Republican ticket, let alone the state of Iowa, against Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, or any other Republican candidate.  But she could play a different role.  

That of political saboteur.

Liz Cheney could play Ross Perot in 2024.  She would not be trying to win states in the Electoral College, but counties in red or swing states, similar to what Perot did in 1992.  In particular, she could convince suburban white women, #NeverTrumpers, and estranged Republicans to vote for her.  She could steal Trump voters who only voted for him in 2020 because they disliked Biden more.

Conservative voters who soured on Trump post January 6th and think democracy is at stake would also likely vote for Cheney.  If she runs on a platform aimed at restoring the soul of the Republican Party, her candidacy may not be victorious, but it would be compelling for many moderate conservatives (like myself).

Some may say her goal should be simply to get on the debate stage with Trump.  If Cheney were to throw her hat in the ring though, it would have to be for more than debates.  Namely, to sabotage Trump’s chances for a second term and make sure he never steps foot in the Oval Office again, assuming he’s even allowed to run (mishandling classified information can unqualify someone for public office). 

How Cheney could play Ross Perot in 2024

Ross Perot may not have set out to sabotage George H. W. Bush’s chances at winning in 1992.  But in effect, that’s what happened.  Perot won zero states in the Electoral College, but still earned 18.9% of the popular vote (to Clinton’s ~43% and Bush’s ~37%).

Crucially, Perot placed second in two states, and won several counties, taking votes away from Bush that may have gone to him otherwise.  This cleared the path for a Clinton victory.  

Perot’s share of the popular vote was the highest since the late great Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.  In fact, Perot is the only non-major party candidate since the infamous George Wallace to win counties and finish as high as second in any state.

With the right strategy, Cheney could do the same.  She should look to the campaign of Glenn Youngkin in Virginia where most of the campaign rhetoric was directed at suburban white women.  Trump has started polling very poorly with this demographic.  And national elections are won and lost in the suburbs of America.

Instead of campaigning about the boogeyman of critical race theory in public schools, however, Cheney could campaign on principles.  Democracy, the rule of law, restoring family values.  She could directly combat the overt and concealed sexism and misogyny endemic in Trump’s rhetoric.  Coming from a strong woman, these arguments could be very compelling.   

This may not win her states against Trump or any other Republican candidate, but if she ran as an independent in the general election like Perot, she could win several countries.  She might even place second in certain swing states, clearing a pathway for Biden or another Democratic candidate. 

Biden’s 2020 victory came largely from the suburbs.  He did better in areas where Hillary performed poorly.  Some of those voters may be on the fence about him after four years of somewhat choppy political seas.  From the disastrous exit from Afghanistan to rising inflation, conservative swing voters need a strong alternative to Biden if the mission is to keep votes from Trump.

That alternative could be Cheney.

There are more registered republicans now 

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year.  This is according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press.  As one pundit put it:

“It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right.”

The far left fringes of the Democratic Party frightens many moderate conservatives who might otherwise vote Democrat.  Fears of socialism permeate certain Latino populations, for example, especially the Cubans in the Miami area. 

While one million voters may not sway an entire national election, they could have an impact.  These voters likely didn’t switch parties or register as Republicans out of love for Biden and the Democrats.  Many are probably more moderate.  Voters who might be willing to consider alternatives to Trump or anyone who has enabled him. 

That could open a third party pathway for Liz Cheney.

Conservatives who love democracy respect Cheney 

It is not just the “Never Trumpers.”  Many moderate conservatives who voted for Trump out of a moral compromise (Supreme Court seats, economic policies, taxes, etc.), would vote for any other compelling conservative if given the chance.

Liz Cheney is still a deeply conservative politician.  Despite what people on the right want you to think, she voted with Trump than many of her colleagues while they were both in office (~93% of the time).

While she arguably enabled him during his presidency, she demonstrated she does have limits to putting the Republican Party over the Constitution and American democracy.  Something that almost no other current Republican can say.  For this reason, any conservatives who value democracy above all else will likely cast their vote for her if given the chance. 

There are also conservative nonprofits and other political organizations who will help her if given the chance.  In particular, the Republican Accountability Project is ramping up advertising to remind voters in swing states about what happened on January 6th.  Because many conservatives are suffering from collective amnesia. 

Cheney may not win the election, but her campaign could be a win for democracy

Liz Cheney could force Republicans to rethink or at least defend a platform that over the past decade has grown increasingly authoritarian. From the Big Lie to taking control of nonpartisan election administration positions in key swing states, this is not the Republican Party of the Bush years.  Any party that actively courts the likes of Viktor Orban needs to do some serious soul-searching.

Cheney admitted herself in her concession speech after losing the primary that she could have won had she not joined the January 6th Committee.  She’s right.  Despite many Republicans having grave concerns immediately following January 6th, they’ve since put party and power over the rule of law.  Many even blamed Antifa for January 6th, but refused to investigate those otherwise baseless claims.

The majority of Americans may not agree with Liz Cheney’s politics.  But it is hard to argue against her principles.  We have not seen the last of her.  Ross Perot 2.0 could return in 2024 with a unique mission.  Not to win, but to help preserve American democracy.  

The issue is much bigger than students taking out loans

Forgiving certain student loans this time around provides immediate relief to some borrowers. But it does not solve the overarching issues. 

• Tying student loans more closely to the projected earnings of college degrees.
• Reining in the schools who use misleading — or fraudulent — marketing tactics to entice students to apply and matriculate. 
• Lowering the interest rates of student loans to account for the fact borrowers often have zero income when getting them.

The list goes on. But it’s certainly not as simple as: “if you take out a loan, you pay it back.” Imagine your 18-year-old self in an environment with all of these forces at play.

Hopefully this act of forgiving certain loans is only the beginning of reforming the student loan industry, not the end. 

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