11 Predictions in Politics, Economics, and Technology for 2023

Published by PolisPandit on January 11, 2023January 11, 2023

The world is a crazy, uncertain place heading into 2023.  From geopolitics to domestic U.S. politics, macroeconomics, and growing trends in technology (particularly with artificial intelligence and ChatGPT), how 2023 will unfold is far from clear.  Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

With that said, I’ve heard numerous predictions from various people and pundits, many of which I disagree, so this list counters some of those prognostications.  Tell me what you think I will get right and wrong.  At this time next year I’ll revisit these 11 predictions and assess my scorecard.  Here we go.

1. Ukraine fights Russia to a stalemate with additional western support.  Putin has failed on almost all of his objectives and there are no signs of improvement, especially as the West ramps up its support. The Bradley tanks from the United States are the latest sign that the West plans to bleed Putin dry.
2. There is a high risk of Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon under certain conditions. If Ukraine does not agree to a peace treaty that involves Russia keeping Crimea, there is a risk of Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon. He cannot afford to look like he lost this “special military operation.” He needs an off-ramp otherwise this conflict could seriously escalate.
3. Putin and Xi will grow their alliance in their attempt to destroy the western world order. The most interesting development could be partnering with Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia in an agreement to trade oil denominated in yuan, pressuring the dollar’s supremacy. Putin would likely welcome this as the international dollar dominated financial system has been used as a geopolitical tool to sanction him and his cronies. 
4. Trump gets indicted and his influence wanes. Will we finally see Merrick Garland take action against Trump? I think so, especially following the Jan. 6 Committee findings. We’ve already seen his influence wane in the party as most of his candidates lost in the midterms and his clout hardly helped Kevin McCarthy’s 15 attempts at winning the Speaker of the House. 
5. While Trump takes a backseat, the Freedom Caucus will take the driver’s seat of the Republican Party.  As we saw in McCarthy’s multiple failed attempts at Speaker, in addition to the concessions he had to make to Matt Gaetz and others, the Freedom Caucus is already asserting its authority in the new Republican Congress.  They will continue to do so because their behavior has no boundaries.  It will only grow more fascist and reprehensible.  They may not be popular with most Americans, but they don’t care.  Tyranny of the minority.  McCarthy’s problems are only beginning.   
6. Inflation will go down.  This will be aided by a strong natural gas market in the U.S., in addition to falling oil prices.  The labor market has already started to cool as we’ve witnessed in the tech industry with thousands of layoffs at the end of 2022. Goldman Sachs recently published this rather contrarian view on inflation (most other institutions project inflation to stay flat or increase).  I think Goldman is right. 
7. Elon Musk will spin off Starlink and take it public.  He has said that he won’t consider this until about 2025, but his timeline could accelerate should market conditions improve.  Not to mention his need for liquidity following his Twitter folly. 
8. Tiktok gets banned unless China divests and the company goes public.  Restricting TikTok is one of the few bipartisan issues that almost every U.S. politician agrees on.  Expect a complete ban unless ByteDance agrees to sell its stake and the company goes public, which would require more information disclosures about how it operates.  And if TikTok does get banned or restricted, look for YouTube Shorts or Instagram Reels to pounce.  
9. Apple will make a big purchase. They need to. Their current business model is under too much pressure from supply chain constraints in China and less demand for consumer electronics, to growing antitrust scrutiny over its app store.  Disney could be a great target given its recent struggles and quality content library.  Apple needs to enter the content game to compete with other technology giants. 
10. Google will lose ground in search.  ChatGPT and other AI tools will gain popularity and other companies could gain market share.  It may sound crazy to think Google may be vulnerable, but unless they launch a similar ChatGPT-type product, they risk falling behind in the search wars.
11. The artificial intelligence art renaissance will begin.  Look for novels published by AI, digital art shows curated by AI, and other AI designed artwork.  ChatGPT is only the start of AI playing more of a direct role in our lives.  The creative capabilities will be showcased soon.  I predict in the latter half of 2023.

What did I miss?  What did I get wrong?  Interested in your thoughts.

Also, given the recent toxic masculinity in our culture, here’s a timely piece I wrote before the disgusting Andrew Tate drama unfolded.  We need better male role models in 2023.